U.S. COVID cases are climbing again as they did in Israel before vaccinations

In emerging hot spots such as Michigan, meanwhile, the pattern is more pronounced. There, cases have soared by 121 percent over the last two weeks, and hospitalizations are up by 81 percent over the same period.

So is this the start of the variant-driven “fourth wave” that Americans have been fearing ever since the end of our horrific holiday surge?

The answer, reassuringly, appears to be no — at least not if America’s path out of the pandemic looks anything like Israel’s.

To date, more than a quarter of the U.S. population (25.3 percent) has received at least one dose of a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine. In Israel, that number is more than 57 percent. Because of its rapid vaccine rollout — and because the more contagious “U.K. variant” known as B.1.1.7 that’s now spreading in the U.S. has already been dominant in Israel for months — experts have been eyeing Israel for early signs of how the pitched battle between vaccination and variants is likely to play out in America.

And so far the evidence is clear: Rising case counts and even rising hospitalizations in certain populations and pockets of the U.S. do not necessarily portend another big wave of infection.

In fact, the same bumps in the road surfaced during the initial stages of Israel’s vaccine rollout — and today, they’re no longer an issue as cases continue to fall. ...

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