But Landon and other experts say people should be cautious when using risk assessment tools and not rely too heavily on a single source, which could create a false sense of security as cases continue to surge

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Mon, 2020-11-16 12:42 — mike kraft

Why experts urge caution in using covid risk and tracking tools As coronavirus cases surge ahead of Thanksgiving and the holiday season, relying on a single tool or data point could create a false sense of security, experts say. Allyson Chiu Washington Post

or many Americans these days, the mere idea of leaving the house prompts a question: “What’s the risk?” And often, they find that even after scrutinizing data on novel coronavirus cases and poring over public health recommendations, there still isn’t a clear answer.

Researchers are trying to fill that information gap. In recent months, free virtual resources, including real-time case trackers and interactive tools, have become available that are intended to help policymakers, community groups and individuals better understand what is happening with the spread of the coronavirus in the United States and how that relates to risk.

“The majority of us are going to underestimate the risk if we just leave it to our covid-fatigued brains to do the math,” said Emily Landon, chief infectious-disease epidemiologist at University of Chicago Medicine. Tools and dashboards may be able to help give people “a much better idea about how much risk is associated with the things that they’re going to do.”

But Landon and other experts say people should be cautious when using risk assessment tools and not rely too heavily on a single source, which could create a false sense of security as cases continue to surge less than two weeks before the start of Thanksgiving and the holiday season.

People can find information about the spread of the virus in their communities and nationwide through online data dashboards maintained by states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, universities such as Johns Hopkins and national media outlets, including The Washington Post.

Beyond simply tracking cases, some tools are attempting to communicate a clearer sense of the risk associated with individual behaviors, such as gathering with a group of people. Professors at Brown University released an app (MyCovidRisk.app) this fall that estimates a person’s chances of getting the virus from specific activities and offers suggestions for how they can reduce risk. ...

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